Three Singularities
I work hard every day as a poutuitui ahunganui (service coach) to strengthen Auckland Libraries, because I care about the well being of staff and improving the quality of life of the Aucklanders we serve. And at home I work hard to contribute to a stable and nurturing environment for my family; i have a four year old son who is an amazing person growing every day. But increasingly the backdrop against which I do this work has me wondering about the future that we are creating for my son to grow into.
I see three singularities, events which I cannot imagine what the future will look like beyond, but which I believe require our attention.
Singularity One
I have been following the work of Jem Bendell for a while, and reflecting on the possibility of societal collapse, which is being openly discussed in the Extinction Rebellion movement in London and around the world at the moment. Here is a speech where Jem articulates the concern:
The state of climate and ecological emergency seems clear; The head of the UN agrees and is calling for the world to “break the paralysis” by 2020, and increasing number of studies are indicating societal collapse to be likely in the near future, yet carbon emissions have continued to increase and have hit an all time high in 2018. Biodiversity loss is causing the sixth mass extinction, another driver towards societal collapse. To me this represents a singularity; what does the world look like after this collapse and what can we do to mitigate and adapt?
Singularity Two
The second singularity that I reflect on has been more commonly written about as a singularity. Ray Kurzweil articulates the significance of this singularity.
This gives a sense of what 2029 might look like:
The underlying message for me being: in a world of accelerating technological development, with more and more radical changes happening faster and faster, what are the implications for what it means to be human? When computers are implanted in the brain (+internet+increasing computer power= super intelligent hivemind? And obvious surveillance state and brain hacking concerns), and AI reaches human level intelligence, what does that mean for us? (note that Kurzweil has a track record of 86% accuracy in technological prediction, spanning back to the late 20th century).
Singularity Three
The third singularity I’m reflecting on is the synthesis of the first two. What will be the interaction at the confluence of escalating environmental and societal collapse, and increasing sociotechnical change? For example, could Extinction Rebellion have spread as far and as fast as it has without a connected world? And will technological change grind to a halt as societal collapse kicks in, or will stronger and stronger signals towards collapse actually create the urgency which we have needed for some time, channeling more of the potential of technology away from consumer capitalism and towards important challenges? Will it all be too late for us by then?
I have no idea, but one thing is clear to me: as a society we need to shift commensurate levels of attention towards these questions if we are to create outcomes that we desire. More countries recognising a state of climate and ecological emergency and allocating resources accordingly would be a good start.
n.b. this isn’t a blog post about how technology will save us from environmental and societal collapse; the problem is, and has been for a long time, essentially political and social, the technical capability to end climate change has been in our hands for 30 years. We are probably past most of the environmental tipping points where we could “end climate change”, now it’s a question of mitigation and deep adaptation
